注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

谢国忠

谢国忠博客:只说出心中真相

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我

麻省理工学院经济学博士

个性介绍: 1960年出生于上海,1983年毕业于上海同济大学路桥系,1987年获麻省理工学院土木工程学硕士,1990年获麻省理工学院经济学博士。同年加入世界银行,担任经济分析员。在世行的五年时间,谢国忠所参与的项目涉及拉美、南亚及东亚地区,并负责处理该银行于印尼的工商业发展项目,以及其他亚太地区国家的电讯及电力发展项目。1995年,加入新加坡的Macquarie Bank,担任企业财务部的联席董事。1997年加入摩根士丹利,任亚太区经济学家,2006年9月辞去该职务。

网易考拉推荐

谢国忠:如果中国失去信心,美元将会崩溃  

2009-05-05 12:12:17|  分类: 言论 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

如果中国失去信心,美元将会崩溃

2009-05-05 


If China loses faith the dollar will collapse


金融时报financial times专栏 五月四号

Emerging economies such as China and Russia are calling foralternatives to the dollar as a reserve currency. The trigger is theFederal Reserve’s liberal policy of expanding the money supply to propup America’s banking system and its over-indebted households. Becausethe magnitude of the bad assets within the banking system and theexcess leverage of its households are potentially huge, the Fed may beforced into printing dollars massively, which would eventually triggerhigh inflation or even hyper-inflation and cause great damage tocountries that hold dollar assets in their foreign exchange reserves.

Thechatter over alternatives to the dollar mainly reflects the unhappinesswith US monetary policy among the emerging economies that have amassednearly $10,000bn (7,552bn欧元, 6,721bn英镑) in foreign exchange reserves,mostly in dollar assets. Any other country with America’s problemswould need the Paris Club of creditor nations to negotiate with itslenders on its monetary and fiscal policies to protect their interests.But the US situation is unique: it borrows in its own currency, and thedollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency. The US can disregardits creditors’ concerns for the time being without worrying about adollar collapse.

The faith of the Chinese in America’s powerand responsibility, and the petrodollar holdings of the gulf countriesthat depend on US military protection, are the twin props for thedollar’s global status. Ethnic Chinese, including those in themainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan and overseas, may account for half of theforeign holdings of dollar assets. You have to check the assetallocations of wealthy ethnic Chinese to understand the dollar’s uniquestatus.

The Chinese love affair with the dollar began in the1940s when it held its value while the Chinese currency depreciatedmassively. Memory is long when it comes to currency credibility. TheChinese renminbi remains a closed currency and is not yet a crediblevehicle for wealth storage. Also, wealthy ethnic Chinese tend to sendtheir children to the US for education. They treat the dollar as theirprimary currency.

The US could repair its balance sheet throughasset sales and fiscal transfers instead of just printing money. The$2,000bn fiscal deficit, for example, could have gone to over-indebtedhouseholds for paying down debts rather than on dubious spending toprop up the economy. When property and stock prices declinesufficiently, foreign demand, especially from ethnic Chinese, will comein volume. The country’s vast and unexplored natural resource holdingscould be auctioned off. Americans may view these ideas as unthinkable.It is hard to imagine that a superpower needs to sell the family silverto stay solvent. Hence, printing money seems a less painful way out.

Theglobal environment is extremely negative for savers. The prices ofproperty and shares, though having declined substantially, are not goodvalue yet and may decline further. Interest rates are near zero. TheFed is printing money, which will eventually inflate away the value ofdollar holdings. Other currencies are not safe havens either. As theFed expands the money supply, it puts pressure on other currencies toappreciate. This will force other central banks to expand their ownmoney supplies to depress their currencies. Hence, major currencies maytake turns devaluing. The end result is inflation and negative realinterest rates everywhere. Central banks are punishing savers to redeemthe sins of debtors and speculators. Unfortunately, ethnic Chinese arethe biggest savers.

Diluting Chinese savings to bail outAmerica’s failing banks and bankrupt households, though highlybeneficial to the US national interest in the short term, will destroythe dollar’s global status. Ethnic Chinese demand for the dollar hasbeen waning already. China’s bulging foreign exchange reserves reflectthe lack of private demand for dollars, which was driven by therenminbi’s appreciation. Though this was speculative in nature, itshows the renminbi’s rising credibility and its potential to replacethe dollar as the main vehicle of wealth storage for ethnic Chinese.

America’spolicy is pushing China towards developing an alternative financialsystem. For the past two decades China’s entry into the global economyrested on making cheap labour available to multi-nationals and peggingthe renminbi to the dollar. The dollar peg allowed China to leveragethe US financial system for its international needs, while domesticfinance remained state-controlled to redistribute prosperity from thecoast to interior provinces. This dual approach has worked remarkablywell. China could have its cake and eat it too. Of course, the globalcredit bubble was what allowed China’s dual approach to be effective;its inefficiency was masked by bubble-generated global demand.

Chinais aware that it must become independent from the dollar at some point.Its recent decision to turn Shanghai into a financial centre by 2020reflects China’s anxiety over relying on the dollar system. The year2020 seems remote, and the US will not pay attention to something sodistant. However, if global stagflation takes hold, as I expect it to,it will force China to accelerate its reforms to float its currency andcreate a single, independent and market-based financial system. Whenthat happens, the dollar will collapse.
  评论这张
 
阅读(855)| 评论(22)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017