注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

谢国忠

谢国忠博客:只说出心中真相

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我

麻省理工学院经济学博士

个性介绍: 1960年出生于上海,1983年毕业于上海同济大学路桥系,1987年获麻省理工学院土木工程学硕士,1990年获麻省理工学院经济学博士。同年加入世界银行,担任经济分析员。在世行的五年时间,谢国忠所参与的项目涉及拉美、南亚及东亚地区,并负责处理该银行于印尼的工商业发展项目,以及其他亚太地区国家的电讯及电力发展项目。1995年,加入新加坡的Macquarie Bank,担任企业财务部的联席董事。1997年加入摩根士丹利,任亚太区经济学家,2006年9月辞去该职务。

网易考拉推荐

减息的日子又开始了 / 謝國忠  

2008-10-03 17:13:49|  分类: 言论 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |
Rate cuts are coming



The collapse of the US bailoutbill in the Congress indicates enormous resistance to solve thefinancial mess with taxpayers' money. The bill, I think, will beresuscitated in some form soon. But, it won't change the politicalreality that the US taxpayers resist paying for the Wall Street's mess.



Thebailout plan won't rescue the economy. The US government hopes that thebailout will allow banks to lend again. But, to whom? The US householdsborrowed in the past with appreciating home value as collateral. Theconsumer credit is already slowing sharply (2.1% in July vs. 5.6% in2007). The consumer credit risk is too high when unemployment is risingso fast. The financial sector doesn't want to lend to households evenwhen they have money. As consumption contracts, businesses won't raisecapex. The chances are that they will decrease it. As the globaleconomy is weak, exports won't help like before. Whatever angle we lookat this, it seems the US economy is heading for unprecedentedcontraction.



The pressure on central banks to easeextends to other economies. Government debt levels are too high inEurope and Japan, and tax rates are already too high. As theireconomies contract, their politicians will pressure their central banksto ease.



At the same time, energy price will remainhigh, and labor productivity sluggish. The bout of rapid laborproductivity growth due to global trade boom is winding down. Hence,sluggish global economy won't decrease inflationary pressure likebefore.



China is also under enormous pressure to cutrates, even though inflationary pressure remains high. The fiscalpolicy is too slow to dent the rapid deceleration of the economy. Ithink that lending rates can be cut by 1.5 percentage points over thenext twelve months, but the deposit rates will remain quite stable. Thelending margin for banks can contract to below 2%. This kind of policyis all reasonable in Chinese context. Banks made a lot of money duringthe boom. They should share the burden on the way down.



Hence,global coordinated cuts of interest rates may happen soon. Printingmoney may become the most important source of funds for recapitalizingthe financial system.



Stagflation is here to stay. I remain bullish on energy and gold, bearish on pretty much anything else.

 


  评论这张
 
阅读(2745)| 评论(10)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017