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谢国忠

谢国忠博客:只说出心中真相

 
 
 

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麻省理工学院经济学博士

个性介绍: 1960年出生于上海,1983年毕业于上海同济大学路桥系,1987年获麻省理工学院土木工程学硕士,1990年获麻省理工学院经济学博士。同年加入世界银行,担任经济分析员。在世行的五年时间,谢国忠所参与的项目涉及拉美、南亚及东亚地区,并负责处理该银行于印尼的工商业发展项目,以及其他亚太地区国家的电讯及电力发展项目。1995年,加入新加坡的Macquarie Bank,担任企业财务部的联席董事。1997年加入摩根士丹利,任亚太区经济学家,2006年9月辞去该职务。

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the perfect storm(暴风雨即将来临)  

2008-02-05 16:35:07|  分类: 言论 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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谢国忠搜狐博客 http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/

(译文在全文后)

The United States is sliding into recession. Japanseems too. China is tightening aggressively. Oil has soared past $100per barrel. The stars are lined up for a perfect storm as 2008 begins.Hang Seng Index may drop 20% over the next three months. The market mayrecover in the second quarter as the Olympic mania affects marketsentiment. Before investors can taste the joy of 2008, they must eatbitterness first.

2008 is a turning point in theglobal economy. The current bull market began in mid-2003: Americansrecovered from the '9-11' shock and China recovered from the SARSshock. Both felt a near-death experience and became determined to liveit up a bit, just in case. Americans went on a borrow-and-spend binge.The defining picture must be throngs of people rushing through thejust-opened doors at Wal-Mart Centers. Chinese threw the money intoproperty and then stock market and watched both rise. The definingpicture must be the throngs of people staring up at the tickersscreens. The two spent differently but got the same thrill.

Well,every party must end. America's is ending now. China's may have a fewinnings left but may experience a big hiccup soon as the US burstchills sentiment here and inflation scares Chinese policymakers intotaking the away, even though temporarily. The combination may cook upthe perfect storm for Hong Kong market.

Thebull market depends on rising earnings and cheap capital. The formerhas benefited from 15% annual growth rate of China's nominal GDP forthe past three years and rising share of corporate earnings in theeconomy due to faster asset appreciation. The macro tightening couldtake a big bite out of both. The tightening may slow nominal growthrate by 20%. It will reverse the rising trend of profit share in theeconomy, mainly due to its powerful effects on earnings in the propertyand financial sector. The growth rate for China's corporate earningsmay halve in 2008, with banks and properties the biggest casualties.

Despitethe Fed's rate reductions, the US economy is still sliding into arecession. The credit crisis has exposed the risks of buying intocomplex Wall Street products. It deters international capital fromflowing to the US. Foreign capital has funded the US borrow-and-spendbinge. Unless the confidence in Wall Street returns, Americans won'thave enough money to spend. It takes time for foreigners to recovertheir faith in the Wall Street. The Fed's policy couldn't substitutethis. Its rate reductions would only make dollar weaker and increaseinflation. As a result, stagflation may stalk the US economy for acouple of years.

The US recession willdecrease risk appetite among international investors. As internationalcapital still dominates the Hong Kong market, it could see significantoutflow. Further, many financial institutions in the US have capitalshortage. They may have to pull money out of Hong Kong. Facing abanking crisis at home in 1998, Japanese financial institutions pulledbig amounts of money out of Hong Kong. The US financial institutionsmay do the same in 2008.

Would Chinesemoney come to the rescue? Not soon enough. Chinese money may be flowingback into the A-share market recently. Even though the A-shares are somuch more expensive than the same shares in Hong Kong, buoyant localsentiment still keeps them up. Chinese investors may be irrational.But, there are so many of them that they can keep an irrational marketgoing for a long time. Hong Kong market is just too rational for thecomfort of Chinese investors. Hence, Chinese market becomes a safehaven during the international correction.

TheFed reductions may not benefit like before. The property demand in HongKong depends on gains in the stock market rather than wage income. Thewage gains are not exceeding inflation by much. The lower US interestrate won't spike Hong Kong wage earners to borrow and purchaseproperties like before. Stagnant population is another headwind forproperty. Japan shows that, with stagnant population, even zerointerest rate doesn't make property price go up. Despite all the hypesabout Hong Kong property, it may have peaked already.

Inthe second quarter, international financial markets may calm down,after fully pricing in a US recession. Chinese money may return to HongKong again, to play at a lower level. International investors may alsohave overcome their fear of the US dragging down China. As the twoembrace, the market may fly again, even though the US market remainsstone cold.

The Olympics party may not lastlong. After the summer, reality may catch up with investors again. ManyChinese companies are concept plays, not lasting franchises. Some mighteven be scams, despite being taken to the market by renowned investmentbanks. Remember subprime: big names don't mean much anymore. China'stightening will expose the negative cash flow businesses of suchcompanies. The resulting explosions may affect confidence.

Theair in Hong Kong and Shanghai may be squeezed soon after the Olypics.The deflating process may be painful to many. But it would make China'scapital markets and economic development healthier. Many 'share gods'have emerged in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Their 15 minutes of fame arefar more damaging than Paris Hilton's: they suck credulous housewivesinto overvalued shares without the pleasant look to soothe. Worse, theymight be talking there own books and could be getting out while talkingbullish.

Even bubble here goes through thesame routine. Investment banks take doggy companies to the market for afee. Some new faces suddenly don the cover of Fortune Magazine as theriches this and that. When the show stops, most stars suddenly vanish.Some manage to escape into the deep woods of Thailand with some stolencash. Little people always lose. We seem to be doomed to repeat thesame mistake again and again.


美国已经开始了衰退期,日本看来也这样。中国也在很进取的紧缩。油价已经过了一百美元。当2008刚刚开始,闪烁的星星看来已经为一场完美的暴风雨做好了准备。恒生指数可能会在未来三个月下跌百分之二十。市场可能在奥运效应的刺激下,在第二季度出现复苏。但是在投资者尝到甜头之前,他们必须先吃到苦头。

2008是全球经济的拐点。现在的牛市是从2003年中开始的:美国从911,中国从非典的震惊中醒来。两者都经历了死亡的感觉,于是决定,不管怎样,需要好好活着。于是,美国开始了借贷消费,最典型的画面,就是刚刚开门的沃尔玛门口的长龙。而中国人则把钱投入了房地产,然后是股市,看着它们上升。典型的画面就是股价牌前的人龙。两者花钱的方式不同,但是却有相同的结局。

好了,晚会总有结束的时候。美国的已经结束了,中国的可能还有一点点时间,但是也可能很快会经历倒退。因为美国的影响,加上政策制定者对于通胀的恐惧,使得他们提前把风球挂上,即使只是暂时的。而这些的混合,可能会导致香港市场的暴风雨的到来。

牛市依靠增加的利润和便宜的资本。之前大家受益于中国过去三年超过百分之十五的经济增长,以及快速的资产折旧带来的利润分享。但是宏观调控会影响这一切。紧缩政策会让快速增长减慢大约百分之二十。这会让经济利润分享的上升趋势出现逆转,特别是在房地产以及金融业的影响。中国的企业盈利在2008年可能会减少一半,房地产和银行会成为最大的受害者。

尽管联储局减息,美国经济依然走向衰退。次案危机显示出了购买华尔街复杂金融产品的风险。这阻止了国际资本流向美国。而外资是美国的信贷消费的支撑。除非华尔街的信心恢复,不然美国没有足够的资金被消费。要恢复外资对于华尔街的信心需要时间。联储局的政策是没有用的。它的减息政策只会导致美元更加弱势以及通胀加大。而结果,美国会出现好几年的通缩。

美国的衰退会让国际投资者增加风险意识。由于国际资本仍然主导香港股市,因此会看到明显的流出。另外,美国的很多金融机构出现资金短缺,因此他们会从香港抽出资金。在1998年,日本银行因为缺乏资金,而从香港抽回大批资金,在2008年,美国的金融机构可能会这样做。

那末内地的资金会来拯救香港吗?可能时间不够快。中国内地的资金可能会在最近回到A股市场。尽管A股的价格远远比香港的H股要贵,但是乐观的市场气氛对他们很吸引。中国内地的投资者可能是非理性的。但是他们有足够的非理性的投资者来推进市场在非理性中上升。而香港市场对于那些中国内地投资者来说过于理性,而中国内地股市成为国际市场调整中的一个天堂。

联储局的减息的效果可能没有从前那样有效,香港房地产市场的需求,依靠的是股市而不是工资收入。工资的增长没有比通胀多多少。美国的减息并不能够像以前那样刺激香港的打工仔去购买房地产。人口老龄化也是房地产的影响因素,就好像日本,即使是零利率,也没有造成房价上升。对于乐观者来说,香港房价的顶峰可能已经抵达了。

到了第二季度,国际金融市场可能会冷静下来,在经历了美国衰退之后。内地的资金可能再回到香港,在底位进行投资。国际投资者可能已经克服了对于美国拖累中国经济的担心,香港股市可能复苏,但是同时,美国市场还是石头一块。

奥运效应可能不会持续长久。夏天之后,投资者会面对现实。很多中国的公司只是在玩概念,不是长久性的。很多可能只是一个空壳,除非真的被投资银行放入了市场。记得这样一句话:名声大不再意味着什末。中国的紧缩政策会让那些资金流不足的公司显现出来。而这些情况的暴露可能会影响信心。

香港和上海的空气在奥运后可能会紧张起来。通缩的过程可能会很痛苦。但是会让中国的资本市场发展得更加健康。很多“股神“已经淹没在香港和上海的股市中。他们的15分钟的操盘造成的损害远远要比PARISHILTON严重的多:他们把那些家庭主妇的钱,吸引到了那些高估价的股票里面。更糟糕的事,在牛市的时候把这些钱占为己有。

泡沫总是用同样的方式发生。投资银行先把那些所谓的公司上市来赚回手续费。于是在一些财富杂志上就会出现一些新的面孔。当这样的表演停止,于是这些面孔就消失了。一些人就会逃到泰国的森林里面,带着不法得来的现金。小人物总是输的。我们必须避免同样的错误再次发生。

谢国忠搜狐博客 http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/





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